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SPC MD 935

MD 0935 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI

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Mesoscale Discussion 0935
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Areas affected...northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska into
parts of Iowa and northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 182330Z - 190130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few occasionally stronger storms within the discussion
area will be capable of producing large hail and locally
gusty/damaging winds.  Risk may remain temporally and areally
limited so as to preclude the need for WW issuance, but we will
continue to monitor convective evolution.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an active zone of convection
from southern Minnesota south-southwestward to
north-central/northeastern Kansas, along and ahead of the slowly
advancing surface front.

The environment ahead of the front is characterized by low to mid
60s surface dewpoints, which combined with daytime heating is
yielding mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/kg within
the discussion area.  This is fueling persistent storm development
-- particularly from southeast Nebraska southwestward to
Lincoln/Mitchell Counties in Kansas.

Despite ample CAPE for robust updrafts, the deep-layer wind remains
marginal for a more substantial severe event.  Though ample veering
with height -- from southerly to westerly through mid levels -- is
yielding enough shear for multicell organization and some
weak/transient updraft rotation, mid-level flow of 20 to 25 kt over
Nebraska/Iowa, and weakening with southward extent, is observed. 
This suggests that the overall degree of risk will remain limited --
with maximum hail size in the 1" to 1.75" range, and severe-caliber
wind gusts very local and brief.  While the evolution of a low-level
jet across this region over the next few hours will likely sustain
convection, the most likely scenario appears that a
southeastward-moving outflow will evolve, with storm redevelopment
favored on the cool side of the outflow.  The anafrontal/elevated
nature of this convection -- particularly as the boundary layer
cools -- likely precludes appreciable increase in wind risk, with
marginal hail and locally heavy rainfall likely to be the most
dominant risks after dark.

..Goss/Thompson.. 06/18/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   38499809 39359810 40659669 41739585 41939505 42059376
            41669265 40439326 39039491 38459662 38499809 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1FK23JU

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