MD 0095 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MO…NRN AR…SERN KS…EXTREME NERN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN AR...SERN KS...EXTREME
NERN OK
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 140940Z - 141545Z
SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-MO VALLEY. REGIONAL VWP DATA IMPLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA
ACCOMPANYING A LLJ ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS TO
THE OZARKS AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THE SPATIAL GAP BETWEEN
THE IMPULSE AND LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY ACCOMPANYING THE LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO NARROW DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE THE LLJ
ENCOURAGES POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF MODESTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR.
ACCORDINGLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING...WITH RADAR
RETURNS ALREADY NOTED FROM PARTS OF ERN KS TO THE OZARKS.
SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...
WITH RELATED DRY AIR INITIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO HYDROMETEOR
SUBLIMATION/EVAPORATION. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT WET-BULB EFFECTS WILL
FOSTER COLUMNAR SATURATION DURING THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME...WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD. AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER -- SAMPLED
BY THE 00Z SGF RAOB BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB -- WILL BE REINFORCED BY
WAA ALONG THE LLJ...SUPPORTING PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING OF
DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. GIVEN SUB-FREEZING WET-BULB SFC
TEMPERATURES...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY. MINIMUM
BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -5C SHOULD SUPPORT SLEET IN
MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WHERE A
RELATIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS AND VICINITY.
FREEZING-RAIN RATES OF 0.02-0.05 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET-ACCUMULATION RATES LOCALLY REACHING ONE-TENTH
INCH PER HOUR. MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SOME
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD
LOCALLY GREATER PRECIPITATION RATES. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD.
..COHEN.. 02/14/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...
LAT...LON 35869147 36139374 37099504 37759534 38319506 38359370
37669094 36828977 36119006 35869147
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/20ws4Yl
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