Press "Enter" to skip to content

SPC MD 953

MD 0953 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS

MD 0953 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

Areas affected...Portions of western and central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 211815Z - 212015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase rapidly across parts of
western into central KS over the next couple of hours. One or more
watches will be needed by 2-3 pm CDT. Large to very large hail,
widespread damaging winds, and a tornado are all possible.

DISCUSSION...A very moist and unstable airmass is evolving early
this afternoon across parts of western into central KS ahead of
dryline and surface front. A couple of updrafts have already been
noted along the boundary in Wallace County in northwest KS. To the
east across north-central KS, strong to occasionally severe storms
have continues through the morning and into this afternoon in a
low-level confluence zone. Additional CU development has been noted
along the associated outflow boundary. As inhibition continues to
erode, additional thunderstorm development could zipper westward
along that boundary over the next couple of hours. Forecast guidance
has done a poor job of handling these storms, CAMs included, and
some uncertainty exists with regards to convective evolution across
that area. 

To the southwest, moisture continues to increase, with widespread
upper 60s to low 70s F noted in 17z obs. While a broader CU field
has yet to develop across western KS, there are some signs of
weakening inhibition and increasing ascent spreading over the region
via increasing mid/upper level cloudiness streaming eastward from CO
and modified forecast soundings showing a nearly-uncapped
environment in the next hour. As such, storms are expected to become
more widespread in the next 1-2 hours near the surface
boundary/dryline across western KS. MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg in
the presence of 30-45 kt effective shear will result in robust,
organized updrafts and supercell structures. A plume of very steep
midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km and lengthened hodographs above
700 mb will support large to very large hail. Additionally, steep
low level lapse rates and modest low level shear will support strong
downdrafts and damaging winds. While convection may initially be
semi-discrete, upward development into one or more bowing segments
is expected as storm outflows/mergers occur in conjunction with cold
pool development by late afternoon. While storm bases will be a bit
high, mean mixing ratios around 14-15 g/kg and increasing effective
SRH values across southwest KS could support a tornado or two in any
more discrete storms.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/21/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39330134 39740076 39990040 40009971 40039867 39959796
            39309767 38499789 37499876 37169950 37120014 37190073
            37360119 37890170 38390186 38890182 39330134 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/312KgU7

Be First to Comment

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.