MD 0974 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…NORTHEAST KANSAS…EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0974
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020
Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska...northeast Kansas...extreme
northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 222340Z - 230145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few more severe wind gusts/hail are possible over the
next few hours of the diurnal heating cycle. The greatest chance for
severe appears to be associated with a small storm cluster entering
Pawnee County, NE. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a
WW issuance is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS is moving across far southeast
NE and is crossing the KS border. One particular linear cluster
embedded in the MCS has a history of producing up to 60 mph wind
gusts and 1.5 inch hail over the past couple of hours. This smaller
linear segment has recently shown bowing structure, with the
immediate downstream environment characterized by 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
and 35 knots of effective bulk shear, supporting continued
organization of the small bow.
However, with the onset of nocturnal cooling in the next couple of
hours, instability is expected to wane, with an overall weakening
trend in convection expected, as also depicted by some of the latest
high-resolution model guidance. Given the shorter duration and
marginal magnitude of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not
anticipated.
..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/22/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40039775 40519769 40679666 40909607 40559563 40379528
39759471 39299461 38899490 38649566 38609629 39029703
39679762 40039775
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2Yp7DFF
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