MD 0974 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…NORTHEAST KANSAS…EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0974 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020 Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska...northeast Kansas...extreme northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222340Z - 230145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few more severe wind gusts/hail are possible over the next few hours of the diurnal heating cycle. The greatest chance for severe appears to be associated with a small storm cluster entering Pawnee County, NE. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS is moving across far southeast NE and is crossing the KS border. One particular linear cluster embedded in the MCS has a history of producing up to 60 mph wind gusts and 1.5 inch hail over the past couple of hours. This smaller linear segment has recently shown bowing structure, with the immediate downstream environment characterized by 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35 knots of effective bulk shear, supporting continued organization of the small bow. However, with the onset of nocturnal cooling in the next couple of hours, instability is expected to wane, with an overall weakening trend in convection expected, as also depicted by some of the latest high-resolution model guidance. Given the shorter duration and marginal magnitude of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/22/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40039775 40519769 40679666 40909607 40559563 40379528 39759471 39299461 38899490 38649566 38609629 39029703 39679762 40039775
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