MD 0988 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0988
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020
Areas affected...Central/Southern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 242026Z - 242230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are developing in an environment supportive of
large hail and strong wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a weak/diffuse boundary
from northeast CO southeastward across central KS and into far
west-central MO. This boundary is defined primarily by a modest wind
shift. A cumulus field continues to build along and south of the
boundary and convective initiation may be underway with the
development of a deep updraft about 20 miles southwest of RSL.
Environment over the area is characterized by MLCAPE around 1500
J/kg and vertically veering wind profiles with 0-6 km vertical shear
from 30 to 40 kt. These conditions are favorable for storms capable
of large hail and strong downbursts. Overall storm coverage remains
questionable given the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and
presence of weak height rises. Convective trends will be monitored
closely and a watch may be needed if sufficient storm coverage
appears likely.
..Mosier/Dial.. 06/24/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39290140 38829962 38599653 37509655 37249845 37880159
39290140
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