SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2019 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday across parts of the Southwest, southern Plains, southern Georgia, and Florida. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper trough encompassing a majority of the CONUS east of the Rockies should gradually move eastward on Tuesday. Greater low-level moisture will likely be present across much of FL and perhaps southern GA to the south of a front. This boundary should not make much northward progress through the period as surface high pressure develops eastward from the mid MS Valley to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms may develop along sea breezes Tuesday afternoon across FL and southern GA. Mid-level flow should be at least somewhat enhanced across the FL Panhandle into parts of southern GA. However, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain very weak as the primary upper trough shifts northeastward away from this region. Instability should also remain modest with northward extent, as generally poor mid-level lapse rates should be present. Stronger surface heating and greater instability across the central and southern FL Peninsula will likely be displaced to the south of the stronger mid-level flow. All these limiting factors suggest that the overall severe threat Tuesday across FL and vicinity will probably remain low. Farther west, a closed upper low initially just off the coast of southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to develop slowly eastward across the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through the period. Modest low-level moisture return should continue across parts of the southern Plains (mainly TX). Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the open warm sector Tuesday afternoon. However, a greater chance for convection should occur across parts of the Southwest into the southern High Plains as the upper low shifts eastward Tuesday evening and overnight. Some low-level mass response in the form of a modestly strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet may also occur late Tuesday across the southern Plains. Mainly elevated convection may develop in response over both of these regions. Even though mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should gradually strengthen Tuesday night, instability is forecast to remain generally weak. Some small hail could occur with the strongest updrafts, but the potential for large hail appears too limited to include any severe probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 11/03/2019
from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1N3UAJB
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