I am expecting that Jefferson county will be placed in a Tornado Watch between 4-6 pm today. Current thoughts are that we will see a surge of warm moist air entering the County this afternoon ahead of a significant cold front. To give a reference on this we should see around a 40 degree temperature swing from our afternoon high to our evening low. It appears that we will have all the necessary elements to generate supercell thunderstorms in place in and around Jefferson County. Think about your tornado safety plans today and pay very close attention to the weather this afternoon.
Below is the current NWS weather story.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a moderate risk area for this afternoon.
This is the tornado risk graphic.
This is the large hail risk graphic.
Below is the graphic from a software package that I’m currently testing. It is designed to identify severe and tornadic thunderstorms for storm spotters.
This is the model run for 7pm tonight. The lines in the back ground are the surface air temperatures. The green and tan areas are the dewpoint. The brighter bulls eyes are basically suspected areas of severe weather. What I’m looking for here is the increased threat of supercells near the frontal boundary as indicated by the wind barbs. This software is giving all indications that the primary area of severe weather around 7pm will be right around Jefferson County.
All signs are pointing to dangerous weather in Jefferson County this evening. Be Prepared!
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