Press "Enter" to skip to content

SPC Apr 29, 2012 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Thumbnail Image

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM OK INTO
IL/IND....

A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN ND THIS MORNING...WITH A
BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES
AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM WEST TX ACROSS CENTRAL OK...THEN INTO PARTS OF MO/IL.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

...OK INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...REINFORCING IT AND SUPPRESSING ITS NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT.  A COMBINATION OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIAL
DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG AND ONLY WEAK CAPPING.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK...BUT DEEP
LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL OR OCCASIONAL
SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT UPPER VORT MAX OVER UT.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT
PORTIONS OF CO/NM AND EVENTUALLY KS/TX.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
EASTWARD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SOUTHEAST
CO/NORTHEAST NM.  SIMILAR TO AREA FARTHER EAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE RATHER WEAK THOUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL /SOME VERY LARGE/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AFTER DARK...MODELS
SUGGEST THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND MAY YIELD A
SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE OF A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST CO.

..HART/SMITH.. 04/29/2012

Read more

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html

Be First to Comment

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.