SPC AC 090050
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail should continue this evening from southeastern Kansas and
vicinity eastward across the Ozark Plateau. Isolated severe storms
are also possible northward to Iowa and portions of southern
Minnesota/southern Wisconsin. A strong gust or two also may occur
across portions of Montana.
...Discussion...
A broken band of storms -- a few strong/locally severe -- extends
from the Lake Michigan vicinity southward to far southeastern
Missouri and continues moving eastward. A general decrease in
intensity is expected with this band over the next few hours.
Meanwhile, some new convective development is underway farther
westward, across northern Iowa near the center of circulation aloft,
and over parts of southern Kansas in a zone of low-level warm
advection. While severe risk should remain isolated at best across
the Iowa vicinity, it remains apparent that storms should continue
to increase across southern Kansas, and into portions of Missouri
this evening (with a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic
environment indicated by RUC-based objective analyses and confirmed
by the 00Z SGF RAOB). Locally damaging winds and hail will be
possible with the stronger storms in this area.
Finally, showers and isolated storms continue moving across central
and eastern Montana. Though weak instability -- and the onset of
diurnal cooling -- should limit storm intensity, a stronger gust or
two remain possible over the next few hours.
..Goss.. 08/09/2021
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