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SPC Day 1 Outlook

















Aug 9, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 9 00:50:51 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20210809 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20210809 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 090050

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CDT Sun Aug 08 2021

   Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARK
   PLATEAU...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and
   large hail should continue this evening from southeastern Kansas and
   vicinity eastward across the Ozark Plateau. Isolated severe storms
   are also possible northward to Iowa and portions of southern
   Minnesota/southern Wisconsin.  A strong gust or two also may occur
   across portions of Montana.

   ...Discussion...
   A broken band of storms -- a few strong/locally severe -- extends
   from the Lake Michigan vicinity southward to far southeastern
   Missouri and continues moving eastward.  A general decrease in
   intensity is expected with this band over the next few hours.

   Meanwhile, some new convective development is underway farther
   westward, across northern Iowa near the center of circulation aloft,
   and over parts of southern Kansas in a zone of low-level warm
   advection.  While severe risk should remain isolated at best across
   the Iowa vicinity, it remains apparent that storms should continue
   to increase across southern Kansas, and into portions of Missouri
   this evening (with a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic
   environment indicated by RUC-based objective analyses and confirmed
   by the 00Z SGF RAOB).  Locally damaging winds and hail will be
   possible with the stronger storms in this area.

   Finally, showers and isolated storms continue moving across central
   and eastern Montana.  Though weak instability -- and the onset of
   diurnal cooling -- should limit storm intensity, a stronger gust or
   two remain possible over the next few hours.

   ..Goss.. 08/09/2021

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