SPC AC 030049
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of
Mississippi and perhaps into western Alabama before this threat
diminishes by late evening. Scattered severe gusts and large hail
are possible across western and central Kansas this evening.
...MS/AL vicinity this evening...
Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over AR moving to the northeast towards the lower OH Valley.
A belt of strong southwesterly 700-500 mb flow (40-50 kt) over MS/AL
this evening will continue to promote storm organization in the form
of supercells for at least the next couple of hours. Enlarged
low-level hodographs (reference the 7pm Jackson, MS raob and
Columbus, MS 88D VAD data) will favor low-level mesocyclones capable
of a couple of tornadoes in the short term (i.e., through 10 pm
CDT). The risk for tornadoes is forecast to diminish later this
evening as boundary layer stabilization occurs. Some lingering
weak-tornado risk may continue on a localized basis beyond tornado
watch #125's expiration time of 10 pm.
...Central Great Plains this evening...
An effective front (modulated by convective outflow) is pushing
southeastward across the central High Plains this evening. Clusters
of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to move east into an
environment characterized by steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5
degrees C/km per the Dodge City, KS raob). Sufficiently moist low
levels, featuring mid 50s to near 60 deg F dewpoints, are
contributing to a moderately unstable airmass across the central
High Plains. Further cold pool consolidation is expected during the
8-10 pm CDT period in which the risk for severe gusts will increase
in both coverage and intensity. A hail risk may continue to linger
on the south end of the activity before outflow-dominant tendencies
promote primarily a severe-gust threat this evening and extending
into the early overnight---aided by strengthening 850 mb theta-e
advection near the KS/OK border.
..Smith.. 05/03/2021
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