SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas. ...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning. Thinking this trend will continue during the day across southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of Beryl. ...Southwest Texas... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening. ...Northern NM... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 07/08/2024
