SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough/low will be in place over much of the central/eastern CONUS on Saturday. This feature will move slowly eastward through the period. A surface cold front will advance off the East Coast Saturday morning, and southeastward across the northern/central FL Peninsula by Saturday evening. Instability is expected to remain very weak inland over this area, primarily due to rather poor mid-level lapse rates. Convergence along the front should also remain weak, as low-level flow will remain veered to southwesterly. While isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of north FL, they should diminish in coverage and intensity through the day as large-scale ascent remains nebulous/weak. Still, given modestly enhanced mid-level flow at the southern extent of the upper trough, some updraft organization appears possible with convection that can occur over the eastern Gulf of Mexico along/south of the cold front. A strong thunderstorm or two could approach the Gulf Coast of the FL Peninsula Friday afternoon, but weak instability should temper the overall severe threat. ..Gleason.. 03/17/2023
