SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2012 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SCNTRL NEB TO SRN MN... ...SCNTRL NEB TO SRN MN... NRN PLAINS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX LIFTS ACROSS MN INTO NWRN ON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE SFC FRONT WILL SAG SEWD TO A POSITION FROM CNTRL MN...SWWD INTO SCNTRL NEB BEFORE STRETCHING WWD INTO CNTRL CO. WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY STALL BRIEFLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX INDUCES A LEE CYCLONE OVER CO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS A VERY WARM PLUME OF AIR OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT 700 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 14-16C WILL OVERSPREAD KS DURING THE DAY THEN NUDGE NEWD TOWARD SWRN IA AFTER DARK. THIS STRONG CAP SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE CO SPEED MAX EJECTS TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE ELONGATED BOUNDARY...PARTLY AIDED BY A SLIGHTLY VEERED BUT STRONG LLJ. ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS A CORRIDOR OF NEAR-SFC BASED OR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IGNITE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD FROM SCNTRL NEB...NEWD INTO SRN MN. GIVEN THE STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SLGT RISK REGION IT WOULD SEEM SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WITH TIME STORM MERGERS MAY LEAD TO LARGER ELONGATED COMPLEX OF CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ROBUST POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES NEAR THE WIND SHIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO HOT SFC TEMPERATURES. ...SERN U.S... COLD MID LEVEL POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY DAY2. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF MINUS 14-16C THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 16-18Z AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ENCOURAGE ROBUST MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ..DARROW.. 05/22/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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