SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS...THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this evening across much of the High Plains. ...Northeast CO into the western Dakotas and eastern MT... An extensive north-south squall line from the MT/ND/SD border southward into northeast CO will continue to move east through a moist/unstable airmass this evening. The 00 UTC Rapid City, SD raob showed steep lapse rates (700-500 mb 7.7 deg C/km) and moderate effective shear (25 kt). The organized squall line will continue to pose mainly a threat for severe gusts across CO northward into MT/ND. Other isolated thunderstorm activity is located over far eastern CO and east-central MT. Both hail and wind hazards are possible with these stronger storms in the near term. Reference MCD #888 for short-term details of the severe thunderstorm risk in eastern MT. ...Southern High Plains... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving northeast across the Sangre de Cristos and eastern CO. Adequately strong mid to high-level southwesterly flow will aid in storm organization with a couple of thunderstorm clusters over eastern NM and the TX South Plains. Isolated severe may accompany the stronger storms for the next several hours before storms gradually weaken through the late evening. ..Smith.. 05/28/2023
