MD 0106 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 30… FOR SOUTHERN GA…EASTERN FL PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Areas affected...Southern GA...Eastern FL Panhandle into northern FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 30... Valid 251536Z - 251700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 30 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated wind gusts will remain possible, particularly along the coast, within the convective line moving across southern GA, the eastern FL Panhandle, and northern FL. Overall limited severe potential should preclude the need for a watch downstream across northern FL. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorm extending from southwest GA southwestward through the central FL Peninsula and off the coast at AAF. Individual cells within the line are moving northeastward at around 35 kt, while the line itself moves eastward at about 16 kt. This motion takes the northern portion of line to the edge of Tornado Watch 30 within the next hour, and the southern portion within the next two hours. VAD wind profile at TLH continue to show strong wind fields, with 50 kt recently sampled at 1 km. However, buoyancy within the air mass remains limited, evidenced by the low storm tops and somewhat anafrontal structure across much of the line. Convective wind gusts have also been muted as the line moves through, with surface observations sampling only modest gusts. Expectation is for this general trend to continue as it progresses eastward over the next few hours, limiting the downstream severe potential. Even so, given the strong low-level flow, a few stronger gusts and a brief tornado could still occur, particularly close to the coast. Overall limited severe potential is expected to preclude the need for a watch downstream across northern FL, but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Hart.. 01/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29668495 30278464 30698440 31338412 31508364 31318313 30898285 30288275 29778285 29478315 29478347 29528377 29588420 29668495