MD 0107 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Areas affected...portions of the eastern Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252324Z - 260030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will move eastward through the region during the next few hours. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible with these storms. DISCUSSION...A semi-continuous convective line with embedded supercell structures is moving eastward ahead of a cold front surging southward through north-central NC. The region ahead of the convection is characterized by a humid and sheared boundary layer. Temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 60s F with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F. 23z RAP forecast profiles in the region show an enlarged wind profile containing around 40 kts of 0-1 southerly shear and 0-3-km SRH around 300+ J/kg. Some surface inhibition may exist (e.g., up to 50 J/kg SBCIN over the cooler near-shore waters) and temper the threat somewhat, but observed temperatures in some areas are 1-2 degrees F greater than forecast thermodynamic profiles. This environment is supportive of rotating updrafts (as evidenced by the numerous discrete supercells offshore) and associated hazards. The primary hazards would be isolated damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes if any embedded segments within the convective line continue to strengthen. ..Flournoy/Moore/Grams.. 01/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 33107952 33917934 34667871 35497761 35977687 36097605 35907532 35637515 35237522 35017539 34907577 34467625 34347653 34387704 34047760 33737769 33647789 33547862 33067897 33107952