MD 0109 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS
Mesoscale Discussion 0109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0828 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern NC and the Outer Banks Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260228Z - 260430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to advance eastward through eastern NC toward the Outer Banks. Expected threats include isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...A quasi-linear convective system continues to move eastward ahead of a cold front draped through central NC. The environment ahead of the system is locally supportive of severe hazards and is characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s and temperatures in the upper 60s. The 00z MHX raob revealed a thermodynamic profile with 0-3-km lapse rates around 5 C/km and MLCAPE around 300 J/kg. The kinematic environment featured very strong low-level veering shear with 0-3-km SRH above 750 J/kg; the current KMHX VAD shows slightly more veered surface flow and lower, but still large, 0-3-km SRH around 450 J/kg. This could support local damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two with any quasi-sustained mesovortices, but the overall coverage of these hazards is expected to be low. To the east, a few discrete supercells are expected to continue propagating northeastward on the eastern edge of the forecast area. Due to the kinematic support, most of these storms have developed strong mesocyclones. However, they are largely forecast to remain offshore and any impacts to barrier islands should be somewhat tempered by the cooler coastal waters. ..Flournoy/Moore/Grams.. 01/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX... LAT...LON 35017721 35457717 35787688 35937642 35807584 35617544 35387517 35287516 34987528 34857569 34697589 34517611 34467644 34577699 34867720 35017721