MD 0125 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH TEXAS…EASTERN OKLAHOMA…AND MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CST Wed Feb 01 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Texas...eastern Oklahoma...and much of central Arkansas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 012330Z - 020530Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain should gradually expand in coverage and intensity this evening. Moderate freezing rain with rates of 0.05+ in/hr will be possible beneath heavier banded structures. DISCUSSION...As of 23:20 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a large area of stratiform precipitation from roughly the DFW Metroplex, gradually expanding northeastward across portions of eastern OK and the ArkLaTex. Driven by low and mid-level warm advection centered over portions of eastern TX, precipitation has encountered increasingly dry mid-level air north of the Red River evident on area RAP soundings. This has prevented more widespread/steady moderate freezing rain from developing across portions of eastern OK and AR so far. However, recent decreasing trends in surface dewpoint depressions suggests saturation is becoming deep enough to sustain moderate freezing rain at the surface. With continued warm advection expected ahead of an upper low moving out of northern MX/southern TX later this evening, precipitation should continue to spread northeastward and intensify over the next several hours. Areas farther north and east will be slower to saturate, but should fully transition to steady freezing rain at the surface after 02-03z. Hi-res guidance also depicts a favored corridor for locally greater freezing rain rates across portions of southeastern OK into portions of west-central AR later this evening. Located upstream of recent, weakly convective showers over northeast TX, locally higher freezing rain rates in excess of 0.05-0.1 in/hr will be possible tonight. Given surface temperatures several degrees below the latest hi-res guidance, significant icing impacts are possible with several hours of persistent freezing precipitation. ..Lyons.. 02/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34419707 35079644 35859508 36199347 36019243 35809202 35559172 34739159 33929199 33769245 33769281 33859325 34239396 34239428 34109467 33529556 33429596 33399638 33909728 34419707