MD 0128 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN VT
Mesoscale Discussion 0128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CST Thu Feb 02 2023 Areas affected...Western and northern NY into far northwestern VT Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 030136Z - 030530Z SUMMARY...There is increasing potential for snow squalls over parts of western and northern NY into far northwestern VT during the next 1-3 hours. Rapid visibility reductions are possible in bursts of heavy snow. DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery depicts a few loosely organized snow bands tracking east-southeastward across southern Ontario and Quebec along/ahead of an advancing arctic cold front. Surface observations show a substantial pressure rise/fall couplet with this feature. As the front continues southeastward this evening, these snow bands may intensify/organize into snow squalls as they overspread parts of western/northern NY and northwestern VT. The 00Z observed BUF sounding showed a conditionally unstable boundary-layer (6.6 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates) and strong west-southwesterly low-level flow (44-kt BL mean wind) ahead of the front. These conditions, coupled with forcing along the cold front and strengthening large-scale ascent in the exit region of an approaching mid/upper-level jet, generally support snow squall development. However, the BUF sounding and surface observations indicate dry boundary-layer conditions into western NY -- casting some uncertainty on persistence and organization. With that said, continued light snow over western NY/related wet-bulb cooling and low-level moisture advection off the Lower Great Lakes could yield increasing boundary-layer RH, and overall conditions appear favorable for snow squalls capable of quick visibility reductions in bursts of heavy snow. ..Weinman.. 02/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 44367324 43517529 42807679 42777788 43007854 43327873 43457838 43497739 43627683 44117651 44667580 45037503 45077398 45097300 44937282 44367324