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SPC MD 128

MD 0128 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN VT

MD 0128 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

Areas affected...Western and northern NY into far northwestern VT

Concerning...Snow Squall 

Valid 030136Z - 030530Z

SUMMARY...There is increasing potential for snow squalls over parts
of western and northern NY into far northwestern VT during the next
1-3 hours. Rapid visibility reductions are possible in bursts of
heavy snow.

DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery depicts a few loosely
organized snow bands tracking east-southeastward across southern
Ontario and Quebec along/ahead of an advancing arctic cold front.
Surface observations show a substantial pressure rise/fall couplet
with this feature. As the front continues southeastward this
evening, these snow bands may intensify/organize into snow squalls
as they overspread parts of western/northern NY and northwestern VT.

The 00Z observed BUF sounding showed a conditionally unstable
boundary-layer (6.6 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates) and strong
west-southwesterly low-level flow (44-kt BL mean wind) ahead of the
front. These conditions, coupled with forcing along the cold front
and strengthening large-scale ascent in the exit region of an
approaching mid/upper-level jet, generally support snow squall
development. However, the BUF sounding and surface observations
indicate dry boundary-layer conditions into western NY -- casting
some uncertainty on persistence and organization. With that said,
continued light snow over western NY/related wet-bulb cooling and
low-level moisture advection off the Lower Great Lakes could yield
increasing boundary-layer RH, and overall conditions appear
favorable for snow squalls capable of quick visibility reductions in
bursts of heavy snow.

..Weinman.. 02/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44367324 43517529 42807679 42777788 43007854 43327873
            43457838 43497739 43627683 44117651 44667580 45037503
            45077398 45097300 44937282 44367324 

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