MD 1572 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454… FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and Northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454... Valid 210237Z - 210400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 454 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts may persist for a few more hours across WW 454 and vicinity. New watch issuance is not anticipated, however, convective trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...A broken line of intense/severe storms continues to track eastward across portions of central into northeast Kansas and entering northwest Missouri. Several reports of damaging winds have occurred with the transition to a linear convective mode. This threat may persist for a few more hours where cold pools are able to remain colocated with the parent convection and overcome the onset of inhibition amid a very convectively unstable downstream environment (MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg). The presence of a developing low-level jet and attendant low-level shear should also promote convective maintenance in the short-term. However, storms should eventually be overcome by increasing convective inhibition and a lack of upper-level support amid weak deep-layer shear. The current expectation is for the strongest storms to remain confined to WW 454 and isolated adjacent areas south/southwest of the watch across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. At this time, a new watch issuance is not anticipated, however, convective trends will continue to be monitored for any sustained convective elements that may pose a broader risk for damaging wind gusts. ..Karstens.. 08/21/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39939516 39869452 39449400 38019460 37669562 37329821 37999836 38629720 39289626 39799575 39939516