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SPC MD 1670

MD 1670 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN VA AND MD

MD 1670 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern VA and MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101701Z - 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will spread eastward across the
Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. Strong to marginally
severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms. A watch is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convective development is underway along the
higher terrain in western VA this afternoon, primarily driven by
diurnal heating/mixing of a moist boundary layer amid minimal
convective inhibition. Ahead of this activity, visible satellite
imagery shows mostly clear skies and efficient diurnal heating along
and south of a quasi-stationary surface front draped from southern
NJ westward along the MD/PA border. While midlevel lapse rates are
poor across the warm sector, lower/middle 90s surface temperatures
amid lower/middle 70s dewpoints are contributing to a strongly
unstable airmass. 

Generally weak deep-layer flow/shear will limit overall convective
organization as it spreads eastward through the afternoon, though
15-20 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 2-4-km layer and deep
tropospheric moisture (1.9-2.0 PW per GOES-16 derived PW) should
support water-loaded downdrafts with strong to marginally severe
gusts of 40-60 mph in the strongest cores. This will especially be
the case where any localized clustering of storms occur. Given the
weak large-scale ascent and limited vertical wind shear/anticipated
convective organization, a watch is not expected.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37027626 36987766 37227829 37617894 38657878 39157858
            39507817 39597746 39497643 39307608 38907587 37977573
            37657575 37327596 37027626 

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