MD 1670 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN VA AND MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1670 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Areas affected...Parts of eastern VA and MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101701Z - 102030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will spread eastward across the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. Strong to marginally severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated convective development is underway along the higher terrain in western VA this afternoon, primarily driven by diurnal heating/mixing of a moist boundary layer amid minimal convective inhibition. Ahead of this activity, visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and efficient diurnal heating along and south of a quasi-stationary surface front draped from southern NJ westward along the MD/PA border. While midlevel lapse rates are poor across the warm sector, lower/middle 90s surface temperatures amid lower/middle 70s dewpoints are contributing to a strongly unstable airmass. Generally weak deep-layer flow/shear will limit overall convective organization as it spreads eastward through the afternoon, though 15-20 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 2-4-km layer and deep tropospheric moisture (1.9-2.0 PW per GOES-16 derived PW) should support water-loaded downdrafts with strong to marginally severe gusts of 40-60 mph in the strongest cores. This will especially be the case where any localized clustering of storms occur. Given the weak large-scale ascent and limited vertical wind shear/anticipated convective organization, a watch is not expected. ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37027626 36987766 37227829 37617894 38657878 39157858 39507817 39597746 39497643 39307608 38907587 37977573 37657575 37327596 37027626