MD 1671 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OR…SOUTHEAST WA…AND SOUTHWEST ID
Mesoscale Discussion 1671 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 Areas affected...Eastern OR...southeast WA...and southwest ID Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102008Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms as they spread northward this afternoon into the evening. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a mid/upper-level low off the coast of OR, regional VWP is sampling 30-40 kt of midlevel south-southwesterly flow overspreading eastern OR into southeast WA and southwest ID. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints has reduced convective inhibition and is supporting isolated convective development. While low-level flow is weak, the enhanced mid/upper-level flow is contributing to a long/straight hodograph (30-40 kt effective shear) supportive of splitting supercell structures. The primary concern will be isolated large hail and locally severe downdraft winds, though the threat appears too localized for a watch. ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT... LAT...LON 42601648 42061674 41961821 42081897 42961923 43411933 44091912 45011917 45911925 46161892 46401808 46401707 45901683 43941666 42601648