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SPC MD 1671

MD 1671 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OR…SOUTHEAST WA…AND SOUTHWEST ID


Mesoscale Discussion 1671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Areas affected...Eastern OR...southeast WA...and southwest ID

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102008Z - 102245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts may accompany
the stronger storms as they spread northward this afternoon into the
evening. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a mid/upper-level low off the coast of OR,
regional VWP is sampling 30-40 kt of midlevel south-southwesterly
flow overspreading eastern OR into southeast WA and southwest ID.
Here, filtered diurnal heating amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints
has reduced convective inhibition and is supporting isolated
convective development. While low-level flow is weak, the enhanced
mid/upper-level flow is contributing to a long/straight hodograph
(30-40 kt effective shear) supportive of splitting supercell
structures. The primary concern will be isolated large hail and
locally severe downdraft winds, though the threat appears too
localized for a watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 08/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON   42601648 42061674 41961821 42081897 42961923 43411933
            44091912 45011917 45911925 46161892 46401808 46401707
            45901683 43941666 42601648 

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