MD 1803 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587… FOR PARTS OF WRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... VALID 240223Z - 240330Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND IN STORM INTENSITIES AS INDICATED BY CAPPI AT 7KM AND 9 KM SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE AS WELL ACROSS WRN KS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY NEW INTENSIFICATION...BUT IF WEAKENING TRENDS PERSIST THEN WW 587 COULD BE LOCALLY CANCELLED PRIOR TO 06Z. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY /SINCE 01Z/ INDICATED A PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES WITH THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED IN MAINLY THE NRN HALF OF WW 587. SINCE ISSUANCE OF THIS WATCH...TSTM ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY REDEVELOPED SWD AS WAS EXPECTED PER RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT IN THE HRRR...BUT THAT MODEL SUGGESTED THERE WOULD BE STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING SWD EXTENT OF THIS TSTM COMPLEX. THIS LATTER FORECAST EXPECTATION HAS NOT OCCURRED...AND GIVEN THE WEAKENING TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND GRADUAL CLOUD TOP WARMING...THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS TO BE LOW. LOW LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITHIN THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ AND SUSTAIN OVERNIGHT TSTM ACTIVITY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING TRENDS CONTINUE AND SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LOW OVERNIGHT...INDICATING A LOCAL CANCELLATION OF WW 587 PRIOR TO 06Z WOULD BE APPROPRIATE. ..PETERS.. 08/24/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38180173 38800190 39150195 39150147 39590110 39569842 38459851 38109938 37990054 37870123 37860176 38180173
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