SPC MD 1804

MD 1804 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN CO…SWRN KS…OK PANHANDLE…NRN TX PANHANDLE

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241933Z - 242100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER SERN CO...SWRN KS...THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...STRONG WIND
GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWED AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SERN CO. STRONG SURFACE HEATING
OCCURRING BENEATH A MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE AREA...WHILE MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS/ IS FOCUSED E AND N OF THE LOW. THE WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM ARE
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS
FOSTERED THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER SERN
CO...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED...WHILE OTHER
STORMS HAVE FORMED NEAR AND E OF COS. GIVEN THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN CO
INTO SWRN KS AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. AREA VWP/S AND
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK.
THUS...AN ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER THREAT IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...A FEW
STORMS MAY PULSE UP IN INTENSITY AND POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 08/24/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35770232 36680317 37090407 38300472 38940382 38980094
            37979996 35780048 35770232

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via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1804.html

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