MD 1847 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Areas affected...Much of eastern North Carolina. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301347Z - 301545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The tornado threat is increasing late this morning and into the afternoon across eastern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...Several mini supercells can be observed from the KMHX WSR-88D this morning off the North Carolina coast. Some of these supercells have started to approach the Outer Banks as better low-level moisture moves westward. The tornado threat will likely be contained to areas where 70F dewpoints advance inland. For now the only 70F dewpoint observed along the coast is Beaufort, ND. However, guidance suggests 70F dewpoints will move around 2 counties inland this afternoon. The wind profile is already favorable for rotating storms per the 12Z MHX RAOB. In addition, RAP forecast soundings show an improving wind profile through the day as instability also increases. Therefore, a tornado watch may be needed for coastal and neighboring counties across eastern North Carolina by mid-day. ..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33867859 34407866 35037819 35827725 36137674 36337622 36267563 35807524 35277534 34967579 34557649 34477703 34017764 33787792 33677806 33867859