MD 1851 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 548… FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and Far Southeastern Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 548... Valid 302215Z - 302315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 548 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat will continue over the next few hours across portions of North Carolina. The greatest short-term threat will be across portions of northeastern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of more unstable air is in place across northeastern North Carolina. In this region, mixed layer CAPE of around 500-1500 J/kg has been nudged in by southeasterly flow across the Atlantic. Dew points are in the mid 70s across the region with low level shear profiles improving over the last few hours. Further north and west, cool more stable air is in place across the western portion of the watch, where temperatures and dewpoints are in the 60s F. Thus, the main tornado threat will likely be more isolated to a narrow corridor of northeastern North Carolina, where a more favorable airmass is in place with at least low 70s F dewpoints. The threat may gradually shift northward with time into portions of southeast Virginia coast this evening. ..Thornton.. 09/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 35267562 34937643 34917701 35067751 35657824 36097825 36847751 37407686 37437639 37297579 37187564 36877521 36567508 36077518 35267562