MD 1974 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UPPER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1974
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022
Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 271719Z - 271915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging winds will be possible in parts
of the upper Ohio Valley region this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Shallow convection has very slowly deepened along the
cold front in southeast Ohio to near West Virginia border. A small
region of mid 50s F dewpoints within this region is supporting
250-500 J/kg MUCAPE. Regional VAD profiles show 40-60 kts of flow
within the lowest 2 km. Though convection will likely remain shallow
and produce little lightning, isolated strong/damaging gusts will be
possible as surface heating continues this afternoon. Within the
last hour, a gust of 37 kts was observed near Chillicothe, OH and 47
kts was observed at Huntington, WV. Given the low-level inversions
present on the 12Z observed ILM/PBZ soundings, low-level lapse rates
are not expected to become overly steep even with more heating. The
shallow convection will likely be the primary mechanism for stronger
gusts this afternoon.
..Wendt/Hart.. 11/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN...
LAT...LON 39818266 40428121 40717986 40387904 39897887 38758039
38378185 38558251 38808270 39818266
