MD 1975 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1975
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022
Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 271952Z - 272215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado
may occur as thunderstorms race northeastward this afternoon. Watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...A band of shallow convection has recently developed
along the NC/VA border to the northeast of Raleigh NC. Very strong
low-level wind fields, with 55-60+ kt of southerly flow at 850 mb
per recent mesoanalysis and KAKQ VWP estimates, are present ahead of
this band across northeastern NC and southeastern VA. Plentiful
low-level and deep-layer shear will support updraft organization
with any thunderstorm that can strengthen. Farther west, the VWP
from KRAX shows the low-level flow has veered to southwesterly,
which is limiting low-level shear across central NC.
The main limiting factor continues to be poor low/mid-level lapse
rates and related weak instability. While low-level moisture is
streaming northward ahead of the band of thunderstorms, it remains
uncertain if sufficient boundary-layer instability will be in place
this afternoon ahead of it to support truly surface-based
thunderstorms. Still, given the strength of the low-level flow,
isolated strong to damaging downdraft winds may occur as this
convection develops quickly northeastward across southeastern VA and
northeastern NC over the next few hours. If a thunderstorm can
become surface based, then a brief tornado may also occur, as
effective SRH is forecast to remain enhanced for a couple more hours
this afternoon, before gradually diminishing as the low-level flow
slowly veers to southwesterly and weakens. Overall, it still appears
the severe threat will remain rather isolated, and watch issuance is
unlikely at this time.
..Gleason/Hart.. 11/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
LAT...LON 36127825 36567781 36927741 37707644 37817582 37667553
37297571 36937591 36657580 36347609 36037678 35927729
35877791 35947827 36127825
