MD 0888 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0888
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023
Areas affected...Parts of eastern Montana into western North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 272354Z - 280130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds are possible on an isolated
basis. A watch is not anticipated this evening.
DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated in two areas in the northern High
Plains. First, convection developed within the higher terrain in
central Montana and is moving slowly eastward. As this activity
encounters greater buoyancy to the east, some potential for damaging
winds and isolated large hail will exist. Uncertainty as to how far
east this activity will push is high given the deep-layer wind field
parallel to the convection. Across southeast Montana, more isolated
cells have developed along outflow from convection to the south.
These storms will have a greater large hail threat along with
isolated damaging gusts. Lastly, a weak surface boundary appears
evident in surface observations and visible satellite. Convergence
is rather weak, but a storm or two could potentially develop and
pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds as well. At present,
severe-caliber storms are expected to remain isolated and a watch is
not anticipated.
..Wendt/Grams.. 05/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46560478 46060582 45780710 46800757 48120773 48830710
48890628 48700409 48230291 48150282 47680231 47010223
46600257 46670345 46710377 46690437 46560478
