MD 0940 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0940 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023 Areas affected...portions of central California Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052343Z - 060115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail may accompany the stronger storms into this evening. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in number and intensity over the past 1-2 hours, with NLDN data showing an increase of lightning flashes along the southern Sierra, and MRMS mosaic radar data showing 30 DBZ cores exceeding 45 kft with some of the storms. RAP forecast soundings depict tall/thin CAPE profiles, with significant amounts of convective inhibition. Widespread 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and speed-shear-driven elongated hodographs suggest that some cells could become organized, but these storms would be confined to the higher terrain, with the potential for producing at least brief bouts of marginally severe hail and perhaps a relatively more copious amount of smaller stones. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 36631967 37542018 38392042 38672026 38341972 37581903 36871863 36571869 36421933 36631967