MD 0941 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA…NORTHERN NJ…SOUTHERN NY/VT…AND WESTERN MA/CT
Mesoscale Discussion 0941
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023
Areas affected...portions of eastern PA...northern NJ...southern
NY/VT...and western MA/CT
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061710Z - 061915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may produce gusty winds to 50 mph and
small hail through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing early this
afternoon from central/eastern PA toward the Hudson Valley and
vicinity. This activity is developing within a rather dry
boundary-layer with surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F, and
deep mixing to 2-3 km is evident in forecast soundings and 12z
regional RAOBs. This will temper overall instability, but steep
midlevel lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km will support up to 500 J/kg
MLCAPE. Deep-layer flow also is forecast to remain modest, with
effective shear values typically less than 25 kt. The overall
environment will limit longevity of more organized and intense
cells. However, given the dry boundary-layer and very steep
low-level lapse rates, strong outflow winds will be possible both
with thunderstorms and even amid evaporating showers. A recent
thunderstorm near State College PA produced a gust to 40 kt about 30
minutes ago, and this seems like a reasonable expectation with
additional thunderstorm activity through the afternoon as convection
tracks toward the south/southeast. Isolated gusts to 50 mph and
small hail will be possible, but a severe thunderstorm watch is not
expected.
..Leitman/Grams.. 06/06/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 43047255 42147252 41367280 40877331 40547373 40407437
40287562 40107697 40307730 40567749 40937741 41417685
42217549 42997483 43307420 43687378 43767372 43807360
43537298 43047255
