MD 0945 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023
Areas affected...eastern FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 071738Z - 071945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase through the afternoon.
Strong gusts to 45-50 mph and small hail will be possible with the
strongest storms as they shift east from the central Peninsula and
offshore of the east coast.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is gradually
increasing across the FL Peninsula early this afternoon, with a
recent gust to 39 kt reported at KBKV. A seasonally moist airmass is
in place, with surface dewpoints generally from 68-72 F. While
midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, strong heating of this moist
airmass has aided in moderate instability, with MLCAPE values around
1500-2000 J/kg noted. This should promote periodic strong updrafts
amid marginal effective shear. Shear will remain somewhat marginal
for long-lived, organized structures, but very steep low-level lapse
rates from the central into eastern parts of the Peninsula will
support water-loaded downbursts. Isolated strong gusts to 45-50 mph
will be possible. While midlevel lapse rates are poor, regional VWP
data show elongated hodographs. Additionally, cooler temperatures at
500 mb (around -11 C) may be sufficient for small hail in
stronger/more robust thunderstorm cores. Overall, severe-caliber
wind/hail is expected to remain sparse, and a watch is not expected.
..Leitman/Grams.. 06/07/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 29508146 29238098 28028032 26527992 25528005 25358038
25518073 26288105 27298140 28188171 28778177 29178168
29508146
