MD 0952 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE…SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY…AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0952
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023
Areas affected...Portions of southern Delaware...southern New
Jersey...and eastern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 081608Z - 081845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe hail and damaging winds
will increase over the next few hours across portions of southern
New Jersey, southern Delaware, and eastern Virginia. The storms are
expected to move off the coast by 4 p.m. EDT. A severe thunderstorm
watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough rotating around the base of an
upper-level closed low over Maine is helping to initiate
thunderstorms across the area. Cool midlevel temperatures are
contributing to relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and around 500
J/kg of MLCAPE. Despite weak low-level flow, the DOX VWP is sampling
nearly 40 knots of midlevel flow at midlevels, which will help with
storm organization. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing hail around 1 inch in diameter and damaging winds. As the
shortwave trough progresses eastward the threat should move off the
coast by 4 p.m. EDT. Given the marginal/isolated nature of the
severe weather threat, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.
..Jirak/Grams.. 06/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 37377765 38097666 38577615 38787570 38777532 38667504
38437499 38087506 37467554 37127586 36617590 36587647
36877752 37377765
