MD 0097 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Areas affected...Southern LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242143Z - 242345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado risk will increase this evening across southern LA and a Tornado Watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...A strong shortwave trough continue to move across the southern Plains, with robust low-level wind fields and strong low-level mass response ahead of this wave across southeast TX into southern LA. This system has contributed to tornado-producing, line-embedded supercells across the middle/upper TX coast this afternoon. The line continues to push eastward into far west-central LA and far southeast TX/Golden Triangle. Expectation is for this line to continue eastward, potentially bringing a tornado threat into more of southern LA. Additionally, persistent and strong warm-air advection may contribute to more cellular development ahead of the main line. These leading storms may be able to deepen/maturing as the low-level air mass improves during the next few hours. All of these factors will contribute to an additional tornado risk this evening across southern LA and a Tornado Watch will likely be needed. ..Mosier/Hart.. 01/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29899329 30399314 30599225 30589151 30549097 30339074 30049069 29659085 29519135 29549194 29619268 29899329