MD 0099 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 28… FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023 Areas affected...Southern Louisiana and extreme southwest Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 28... Valid 250011Z - 250215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat will spread east across southern Louisiana into extreme southwest Mississippi this evening. DISCUSSION...Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across the lower MS Valley this evening ahead of an upper low ejecting across north-central TX. In response to this upper feature, surface low is now advancing inland across southwest LA, and modified Gulf air mass has returned across southern LA Parishes. Over the last few hours, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced to the latitude of LFT immediately ahead of the forced squall line. Forecast soundings suggest mid-upper 60s surface dew points are needed for near-surface-based buoyancy while supercells north of this are most likely appreciably elevated. Numerous discrete supercells are evolving within the warm advection zone ahead of the line, and many of these updrafts are likely elevated. As moisture increases across southern LA the prospect for near-surface-based updrafts will increase, along with the threat for tornadoes with these supercells. Otherwise, embedded supercells remain possible along the advancing squall line. ..Darrow.. 01/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29329339 31239199 30739111 28699155 29329339
