SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453

WW 453 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 311900Z – 010400Z


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  SOUTHEAST COLORADO
  WESTERN KANSAS
  NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
  OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
  WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM
  UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF TUCUMCARI
NEW MEXICO.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000+ J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY
COINCIDES WITH A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MODEST /30-35 KT/
DEEP NWLY SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS WILL
LIKELY COALESCE INTO SWD OR SWWD-MOVING CLUSTERS BY EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36020.


...MEAD

via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0453.html