SPC AC 140658
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal tornado threat may develop across parts of the Southeast
on Monday, associated with Tropical Storm Fred. Thunderstorms with
hail and strong winds may also develop across parts of the central
Plains late Monday afternoon into early Monday evening.
...Southeast...
Tropical Storm Fred is forecast to move across the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico Sunday night and approach the Florida Panhandle Monday
morning. Associated rainbands are forecast to overspread the Florida
Panhandle, southern Alabama and southwest Georgia during the day.
Strong low-level shear evident on forecast soundings across parts of
the eastern Gulf Coast region should support a marginal tornado
threat. The magnitude of the threat should depend upon if cells can
remain semi-discrete within the more organized bands that move
inland.
...Central Plains...
West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
north-central U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a moist airmass will
be located across much of the Great Plains. Moderate instability is
forecast on Monday in much of Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota,
where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the afternoon. Model forecasts are in general agreement that a
pocket of strong instability may develop across parts of western
Nebraska into northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado by late Monday
afternoon. If this happens, then a marginal severe threat would be
possible, with hail and strong winds as the primary threats.
..Broyles.. 08/14/2021
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