Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 151

   Mesoscale Discussion 0151
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern Kansas into west-central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 102144Z - 102345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible in
   southeastern Kansas into west-central Missouri, particularly by
   early to mid-evening. With uncertain storm coverage and limited
   buoyancy, the need for a WW is unclear. Trends will continue to be
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus has continued to develop in the immediate
   vicinity of a dryline pushing into eastern Kansas. Warm air aloft
   observed on this morning's TOP sounding continues to inhibit further
   vertical development. Weak large-scale forcing for ascent will
   remain farther north into Iowa and Minnesota. Later this afternoon
   and evening, the cold front position across northern Kansas into
   Nebraska will move southeastward. A few isolated storms may develop
   in northern Missouri where low-level convergence will initially be
   stronger. These storms may pose threat for strong winds, but will be
   limited by weak buoyancy. In southeastern Kansas into west-central
   Missouri, storm development will become more likely by early evening
   as the low-level jet interacts with the advancing front. Elevated
   storms will be capable of large hail with relatively steep mid-level
   lapse rates, long hodographs, and 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Wind damage
   will also be possible on a more isolated basis. Given the marginal
   buoyancy and lack of deep-layer ascent, storm coverage is a bit
   unclear. While a WW is possible, it is not certain. Trends will
   continue to be monitored.

   ..Wendt/Kerr.. 03/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37899706 39739571 40379486 40429431 39849359 38759367
               37209546 36599678 36619745 37149766 37899706