Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 155

   Mesoscale Discussion 0155
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0857 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021

   Areas affected...Far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121457Z - 121630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible for the next several
   hours, primarily across southern Kansas

   DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed within a broad
   region of isentropic ascent across northern Oklahoma and southern
   Kansas. The 12Z DDC RAOB showed an environment characterized by 600
   J/kg MUCAPE, 7.5 to 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and effective
   shear in excess of 40 kts. SPC mesoanalysis suggests a similar
   environment is likely present across much of southern Kansas and
   should remain somewhat constant through the morning. Therefore, a
   few stronger updrafts capable of large hail are expected, but it is
   expected to be intermittent due to the limited instability. The best
   chance for stronger/longer lived strong updrafts will be on the
   southern portion of this convective cluster across southern Kansas.
   Due to the marginal/intermittent nature of the threat, no watch is
   anticipated.

   ..Bentley/Grams.. 03/12/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37419923 37649863 38029741 38269579 38159493 37839487
               37419545 36889703 36579838 36609911 36949938 37419923