Mesoscale Discussion 1683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021 Areas affected...northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021911Z - 022115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms in the Salina Kansas area may persist for a few hours into northeast Kansas. Wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado threat are all possible. DISCUSSION...Storms on the southern fringe of a larger-scale precipitation shield from NE into northern KS have increased in intensity as a hotter air mass develops to the south. Surface analysis shows temperatures into the 90s F across south-central KS, which has eroded capping. Downstream of these cells, temperatures are quite a bit cooler, only in the lower 80s around Topeka, although a warming trend is expected. Cirrus is currently hampering heating across northeast KS as well. Given the robustness of the current cell, a severe hail or wind threat may persist in a narrow zone across several counties over the next few hours. In addition, shear profiles are favorable for supercells, and 0-1 SRH will remain over 100 m2/s2 which could also favor a tornado risk assuming cells remain discrete. ..Jewell/Grams.. 09/02/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39069798 39539626 39449589 39169571 38949577 38839609 38799716 38739789 38809799 38919802 39069798
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1683
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