Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1687

   Mesoscale Discussion 1687
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0715 PM CDT Thu Sep 02 2021

   Areas affected...portions of northeast Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 487...

   Valid 030015Z - 030145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 487 continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two remain
   possible over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms have developed over the past few
   hours, with a couple of damaging gusts noted with cellular mergers.
   These storms are progressing in a relatively pristine environment
   characterized by up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, storms have
   struggled to sustain steady state behavior in structure or
   intensity, with recent severe potential mainly being confined to
   storms progressing from Dickinson into Morris County, KS. Current
   thinking is that storms will continue to fluctuate in intensity,
   supporting occasional damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado,
   especially farther north, where greater deep-layer ascent and
   low-level/deep-layer shear are present. The severe threat may
   persist for at least a couple hours after dark given a modest
   expected increase in the nocturnal low-level jet.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/03/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38299855 39259752 39839687 39889614 39629557 39129538
               38649569 38359610 38129712 38299855