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Mesoscale Discussion 1769 | |
Mesoscale Discussion 1769 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021 Areas affected...far northeast Kansas through northern and central Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201915Z - 202115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over far northeast Kansas by 20Z, likely evolving into a line as they continue east through northern Missouri into the evening. Locally strong to severe wind gusts will be the primary threat, though a few instances of hail may also occur in the stronger storms. A severe thunderstorm watch might be needed for this region by 20-21Z. DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a cold front extends from western IA through northeast KS near Topeka, then farther southwest near Wichita. The downstream warm sector has become moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE as surface temperatures climb through the 80s along with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints. Deeper forcing and stronger winds aloft attending a northern-stream shortwave trough will remain north of this region. Nevertheless, forcing for ascent within frontal zone should become sufficient to initiate storms over northeast KS as the boundary layer continues to destabilize and any remaining convective inhibition weakens. Vertical wind profiles with 30-35 kt effective bulk shear will support multicell storm modes, with storms likely to eventually evolve into line segments along the front. The stronger storms will become capable of producing strong to damaging gusts, especially as they continue east through northern MO later this afternoon into the evening. ..Dial/Hart.. 09/20/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37899444 38349489 39159508 39859494 40399440 40539320 40399249 39749209 38859236 38229286 37889363 37899444 |
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