Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1849

   Mesoscale Discussion 1849
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of north-central into northeastern KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...

   Valid 130754Z - 130930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds remain possible in the short
   term. Downstream watch issuance into more of northeastern Kansas
   appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a squall line has recently
   weakened as it moved from north-central into northeastern KS. This
   is occurring largely due to a less favorable thermodynamic
   environment with eastward extent across northeastern KS. Fairly
   strong MLCIN should continue to temper updraft strength, even though
   low-level warm/moist advection is occurring with a stout, 50-60+ kt
   southerly low-level jet. Recent radar data from KTWX shows some
   strong inbound velocities within the line, and isolated strong/gusty
   winds may continue in the short term even with the marginal
   thermodynamic environment. At this point, it does not appear that
   the warm/moist advection at low levels will be enough to offset the
   nocturnal increase in convective inhibition. Accordingly, the
   overall severe threat should remain rather isolated/marginal, and
   downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38639728 38959712 39959711 39969625 39419599 38579601
               38639728