Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1886

   Mesoscale Discussion 1886
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0914 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

   Areas affected...far northeast Kansas and southeast
   Nebraska...northern Missouri...far western Illinois and southern
   Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 240214Z - 240445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to develop around 03Z over
   northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska, and persist eastward across
   northern Missouri and into western Illinois. Large hail is possible
   with the strongest cells.

   DISCUSSION...A warm front will gradually lift north across eastern
   KS and MO tonight, with increasing lift as a 50-60 kt low-level jet
   develops. Theta-e advection is forecast to be maximized over
   southeast NE into northern MO, and moistening just off the surface
   should eventually lift the capping inversion seen on 00Z soundings
   between 850 and 700 mb.

   Temperatures aloft become cooler with northern extent, with 500 mb
   values of -12 to -13 C expected over the MCD area. Forecast
   soundings suggest instability will be sufficient to produce hail, in
   combination with 40-50 kt effective deep-layer shear.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39399238 39459562 39579678 39989727 40029737 40889735
               40889167 40689115 40469091 39599098 39389123 39399238