Mesoscale Discussion 1887 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 Areas affected...Parts of northern and central Missouri and adjacent portions of northeastern Kansas and west central Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530... Valid 240713Z - 240915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530 continues. SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development appears likely in a corridor across north central Missouri, to the north of Interstate 70, through 4-6 AM CDT. Some of this activity may pose a risk for severe hail, which may continue beyond the watch expiration. However, this threat may remain marginal enough that a new severe weather watch may not be needed. DISCUSSION...The primary initial convective development has been focused along the warm frontal zone near the 850 mb level, beneath the cooler mid-level temperatures. To the south of this band, potential instability is larger, but inhibition associated with warmer mid-level temperatures has tended to suppress thunderstorm development. However, latest model output continues to indicate that there will be increasing lift along this corridor through 09-11Z, which seems likely to support increasing new thunderstorm development. As this occurs, the environment will probably be conducive to a few supercell structures posing at least a marginal severe hail risk, before activity becomes more widespread. ..Kerr.. 10/24/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... LAT...LON 40239522 40199266 39349033 38849074 38839255 38949395 39229485 40239522
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1887
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