Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1890

   Mesoscale Discussion 1890
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0328 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of western MO

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 531...

   Valid 242028Z - 242200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 531 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat, including the potential for a
   few tornadoes, should focus across parts of western Missouri through
   5 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms is moving over northwestern MO
   and the Kansas City metro as of 2020Z. One tornado was reported
   earlier with this convection, and the latest VWP from KEAX shows
   rapidly strengthening winds in the 0-1 km layer, with nearly 200
   m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH present. 20Z mesoanalysis shows 1500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear, which is more than
   sufficient for supercells. Tornadoes will remain possible with this
   convection in the short term, especially along/near a surface warm
   front which extends from a surface low near the KS/MO border across
   northern/central MO. Large hail and damaging winds will also be a
   concern with any sustained supercell. These storms will move
   eastward across parts of western MO over the next hour or two, and
   should pose the greatest severe threat across Tornado Watch 531
   through 5 PM CDT.

   ..Gleason.. 10/24/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38119457 39319423 39819432 40179436 40159336 39979302
               39239297 38419328 37919350 37789416 37869455 38119457