Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1934

   Mesoscale Discussion 1934
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1053 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101653Z - 101900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through
   early-mid afternoon across parts of eastern KS into southeast NE. 
   It is uncertain whether a watch will be needed, but trends are being
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have recently formed in
   Sedgwick/Harvey counties KS.  Other convection is beginning to form
   farther northeast near MHK.  All of this activity is associated with
   increasing large-scale forcing ahead of a shortwave trough moving
   into western KS.  Moderately strong south-southwesterly low-level
   winds in this area are enhancing warm advection, and are
   transporting a more moist air mass into the area.  Forecast
   soundings suggest sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear, along with
   relatively cool mid-level temperatures, to pose a risk of hail in
   the stronger cells.  Gusty/damaging winds or even brief spin-ups may
   also become a threat this afternoon if convection can sufficiently
   organize and take advantage of the backed near-surface winds.  All
   of this is tempered by widespread cloud cover and variability among
   CAMs regarding the evolution of storms.  Convective trends will be
   monitored for increasing organization and the possibility of a watch
   in the next few hours.

   ..Hart/Guyer.. 11/10/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39439730 40029690 40589589 40419521 39619521 38779565
               38119628 37669714 37949743 39439730