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Mesoscale Discussion 1961 | |
Mesoscale Discussion 1961 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CST Sun Dec 05 2021 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Northern Arkansas...Southern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 060206Z - 060400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop from eastern Oklahoma east-northeastward across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas over the next hour. Weather watch will be needed across the region. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across northern Oklahoma, far southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The front is moving southeastward and low-level convergence has increased over the last according to objective analysis. In response, convective towers have developed along the front and cells are beginning to initiate. The airmass ahead of the front is moist with surface dewpoints near 60 F and MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWPs at Tulsa and Fort Smith have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 kt range with speed shear in the boundary layer and curved hodographs. This should be favorable for supercells with storms that can remain discrete amid a rapid expansion in convective coverage. The low-level shear may also support a tornado threat. Eventually, a nearly continuous line of storms is expected to organize along the front. Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat should accompany the more intense parts of the line. The threat should develop eastward and southeastward with time as the cold front advances. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 12/06/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... OUN... LAT...LON 35179397 34899491 34919563 35019597 35299635 35699641 36139620 36599567 37039503 37529349 37809168 37968915 37908847 37568800 36968792 36598804 36168870 36048967 35549278 35179397 |
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