Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2028

   Mesoscale Discussion 2028
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

   Areas affected...Much of eastern Kansas and adjacent northeastern
   Oklahoma into western Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152029Z - 152230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A narrow line of intensifying showers and thunderstorms
   may gradually evolve and overspread the region through 4-6 PM CST,
   accompanied by the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Strong mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the
   intense, cyclonically curved jet streak (in the 500-250 mb layer) is
   passing to the north of the region, as the speed maximum propagates
   across the central Great Plains toward the middle Missouri Valley. 
   However, convection is deepening beneath the dry, subsident upper
   regime to the south of the jet, along a modest lead surface cold
   front as it gradually overtakes the dryline across central Kansas. 
   This appears to be occurring just ahead of the leading edge of
   stronger cooling around the 700 mb level, which is forecast to
   approach the St. Joseph MO, Kansas City MO, Chanute KS, Ponca City
   OK areas by around 16/00Z.

   Aided by some further destabilization of a seasonably moist boundary
   layer ahead of the front, the developing narrow line of convection
   may continue to intensify and become capable of producing lightning.
    It is possible that this may tend to be undercut by the leading
   edge of surface cooling, but steepening low-level lapse rates
   (beneath the cooling just above the boundary-layer) will aid the
   downward transport of higher momentum to the surface, in an
   environmental flow regime characterized by 50-70+ kt southwesterly
   mean wind speeds in the lowest 5-6 km AGL.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 12/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   39209722 39729614 40389440 40349343 38559393 36949508
               36529700 36629803 37459770 38029731 39209722