Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 327

   Mesoscale Discussion 0327
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

   Areas affected...Northeastern Missouri...Western
   Illinois...southeastern Iowa.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072204Z - 080000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts will likely decrease as
   a line of convection moves north and east this afternoon evening. A
   narrow area in northeast Missouri into western Illinois appears to
   have the most favorable environment for stronger gusts. A downstream
   watch is not anticipated this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong to occasionally severe storms along a line west
   of St. Louis will continue to progress to the northeast into the
   evening. The most intense portion of this line remains to the
   northwest of the St. Louis metro area and is being sustain by strong
   mid-level ascent from the upper low in Kansas. Current surface
   observations show low to mid 70s F temperatures just ahead of the
   line within the Mississippi Valley. There, some cloud cover has kept
   dewpoints from mixing out with a few low 60s F being observed. The
   Quincy, IL vicinity appears to have the most favorable environment
   ahead of the line coupled with the upper-level support. Farther
   east, greater sunshine has allowed higher temperatures, but
   dewpoints have mixed into the mid/upper 50s F. While a few isolated
   damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly in northeast Missouri
   into adjacent western Illinois, the over all trend in convective
   intensity is expected to decrease the farther north and east the
   line moves. An additional downstream watch is not anticipated.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 04/07/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38099054 37959144 38449184 39479248 40079280 40269293
               40589288 41259194 41249079 40128994 39538968 38848966
               38408968 38099054